Back in the fall, the North Carolina High School Athletic Association reorganized itself from a four-classification standard to an alleged “expanded”, eight-classification approach. And yet,the Association had an opportunity to rectify a wrong it has been committed for many years.
That wrong was that there were too many teams making the state playoffs when they have mediocre to putrid records coming out of the regular season. This all began when the NCHSAA expanded the state playoffs in the old four classification system from 48 to 64 teams in the 2013-14 season.
When a team is 1-23 or 2-20 in basketball or whatever upside-down record (aka sub-.500, or a losing record) it is in any sport – without question, your team deserves a first-class ticket to an early start to the first practices in in the next sports season.
But the Association is continually giving state playoff berths to bad teams with horrible records that don’t deserve to be there.
There are no logical explanations on why the NCHSAA continually rewards mediocrity or futility. For good teams, it is a waste of time and energy in beating a bad teams into oblivion. It’salso a chance for the good teams to play and risk injury against inferior opponents. For the teams with the bad records – these schools and their respective school systems – it is a literalwaste of time and actual energy on a trip that is proven that the odds are stacked against them.
Just like I did in the fall, I researched what it looks like when the NCHSAA allows bad teams to enter the state playoffs all for it to be a waste of everyone’s time. For the winter sports season, I only researched the men’s and women’s basketball records. I also researched the one-way commutes of the away teams, the one-way mileage of the commutes, the number of actual upsets versus the lack thereof, and the number of blowouts that come in the first-round games – primarily from teams with sub-.500 records.
Let’s begin with the commutes. As a reminder, going across our great state is a long one to begin with. Venturing across North Carolina from the westernmost high school, Hiawassee Dam in Cherokee County (just west of Murphy), to the easternmost high school, Cape Hatteras in Dare County, is 615 miles. It would take you ten hours just to make the drive.
Now imagine traversing that insane amount of mileage on your ordinary high school activity bus. One can have nightmares just thinking about it.
These were five longest commutes in the first round in Women’s Basketball in reverse order:
In fifth place: In the 5A East bracket, 20th-seeded Person (5-18) traveled to 13th-seed West Carteret (12-11) at a time of 3hr, 34 min; a distance of 206 miles. West Carteret edged Person, 57-55.
In fourth place: In the 1A East bracket, 22nd-seeded KIPP Pride (2-18, Northampton Co.) traveled 11th-seed Cape Hatteras (11-11, Dare Co.) at a time of 3hr, 38 min; a distance of 195miles. Cape Hatteras throttled KIPP, 56-19.
In 3rd place: In the 1A West bracket, 17th-seed Blue Ridge Early College (6-18, Jackson Co.) traveled to 16th-seed NC Leadership Academy (7-19, Forsyth Co.) at a time of 3hr, 42 min; a distance of 221 miles. Blue Ridge defeated NCLA, 40-27.
In 2nd place: In the 2A West bracket, 20th-seed Swain County (5-19) traveled to 13th-seeded Albemarle (14-12, Stanly Co.) at a time of 3hr, 57 min; a distance of 224 miles. Swain County eeked out a 35-32 upset.
But taking home the gold: In the 1A West bracket, 21st-seed Triangle Math & Science Academy – Triad (4-14, Guilford Co.) traveled to 12th-seeded Highlands (14-10, Macon Co.) at a distance of 4hr, 14 min; at a distance of 254 miles. Highlands won convincingly, 59-16.
But in Men’s Basketball, the times and distances went even further.
In fifth place: In the 1A West bracket, 19th-seed Summit Charter (5-15, Jackson Co.) traveled to 14th-seeded College Prep & Leadership Academy (7-17, Guilford Co.) at a time of 3hr, 52min; at a distance of 228 miles. CPLA thrashed Summitt, 65-22..
In fourth place: Also, in the 1A West bracket, 18th-seeded Blue Ridge Early College (5-19, Jackson Co.) at 15th-seed Bethany Community (13-12, Guilford Co.) at a time of 3hr, 59min; a distance of 246 miles. Bethany also won decisively, by an 84-22 account.
In 3rd place: In the 1A West bracket, 20th-seed North Stokes (5-19) traveled to 13th-seed Highlands (8-17, Macon Co.) at a time of 4hr, 33 min; a distance of 262 miles. North Stokes pulled off the 63-58 upset.
In 2nd place: In the 2A West bracket: 18th-seed Albemarle (11-14, Stanly Co.) traveled to 15th-seeded Hayesville (11-15, Clay Co.) at a time 4hr, 39 min; a distance of 262 miles. Albemarle won a decisive, 64-54 decision.
But the overall grand champion of my research was in the 4A East bracket: 23rd-seed J.M. Morehead (4-17, Rockingham Co.) traveled to 10th-seed First Flight (13-13, Dare Co. – thesecond farthest high school in eastern North Carolina) at a staggering one-way time of 5hr, 38 min; a distance of 349 miles. First Flight won the game by a convincing 79-51 tally.
These were the extremes. But it doesn’t reflect the overall times. When you get to the 7A and 8A schools that are in more urban areas, their commute times are much smaller. But when the rest of the state is averaged with each other by classification, it paints a vastly different picture:
WOMEN’S BASKETBALL – 1st Round One-Way Commutes (Time & Distances) by Classification:
1A: 1hr, 55 min – 104.9 miles
2A: 1hr, 43 min – 94.7 miles
3A: 1hr, 26 min – 83.5 miles
4A: 1hr, 28 min – 82.5 miles
5A: 2hr, 11 min – 128.8 miles
6A: 1hr, 16 min – 67.3 miles
7A: 1hr, 17 min – 70.4 miles
8A: 1hr, 12 min – 65.2 miles
Statewide Average: 1hr, 34 min – 104.9 miles
MEN’S BASKETBALL – First Round One-Way Commutes (Time & Distances) by Classification:
1A: 2hr, 53 min – 140.1 miles
2A: 2hr, 5 min – 118.0 miles
3A: 1hr, 51 min – 104.2 miles
4A: 1hr, 37 min – 86.9 miles
5A: 2hr, 18 min – 133.8 miles
6A: 1hr, 20 min – 71.6 miles
7A: 1hr, 12 min – 64.8 miles
8A: 1hr, 6 min – 59.0 miles
Statewide Average: 1hr, 47 min – 97.3 miles
Again, imagine being on a cramped activity bus for these amounts of time or for one of the aforementioned extremes. Unless a school system hires a nice charter bus or a local church has a retired charter bus on loan, you’re going to use every comfort measure possible so you can stay loose and relaxed before arriving at the site of competition.
There were games that were close, but there were a number of blowouts and not too many upsets.
The biggest part of the playoffs is who to actually let in. As I’ve said in other editions of The Franklin Mint is that when you put too many teams in a tournament, the quality of the tournament suffers. When you have a group of 32 teams in 8A and roughly 60 teams in 1A-7A, the demarcation line is 16 teams in 8A and around 30 teams in 1A-7A. When you let in more teams than that, it’s a well-conceived fact that any additional teams beyond the number is going to have teams with mediocre to worse records. What’s even harder to comprehend, as seen above in the extremes, is that many of these .500 or worse teams are hosting first round games. Some received byes and hosted second round games.
I broke the numbers down to show what it looked of how many teams were above .500 in each classification:
WOMEN’S BASKETBALL
In 8A, 19 of 24 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 7A, 32 of 48 teams were above .500 – 2 were at .500.
In 6A, 26 of 48 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 5A, 28 of 48 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 4A, 34 of 48 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 3A, 23 of 48 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 2A, 22 of 43 teams were above .500 – 0 were at .500.
In 1A, 23 of 46 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
MEN’S BASKETBALL
In 8A, 20 of 24 teams were above .500 – 0 were at .500.
In 7A, 34 of 48 teams were above .500 – 0 were at .500.
In 6A, 27 of 48 teams were above .500 – 2 were at .500.
In 5A, 35 of 48 teams were above .500 – 3 were at .500.
In 4A, 26 of 48 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 3A, 34 of 48 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 2A, 21 of 48 teams were above .500 – 3 were at .500.
In 1A: 21 of 48 teams were above .500 – 2 were at .500.
It’s not a good look in the classifications of the smallest schools (1A & 2A) when more than half of your tournament teams have sub-.500 records. So why not combine the two classes and have a tournament with the qualified teams (46 teams, women; 47, men)? This was the same problem back in the fall with football & volleyball when most of the teams in those playoffs were comprised of teams with atrocious records.
Due to current seeding structure, the NCHSAA allows teams with .500 records and worse to host first round games. (By the way, there were numerous first round matchups featuring one or both game participants with sub-.500 records) There are sub-.500 teams that also receive byes and host second round games.
As previously mentioned, if you’re a team that finished the regular season & conference tournament at .500, you should be lowest seeded teams in the tournament and should not ever host games, receive byes, or host second round matchups – EVER.
The reason I’m emphasizing admitting and rewarding the teams with above average records is because it creates emphasis on winning in the regular season. Given the current design of the playoffs, admitting mediocre and/or futile teams in the playoffs now renders the regular season as meaningless. It doesn’t matter how well you perform in the regular season when anywhere from 75% (8A) to 81.4% (1A-7A) of teams will actually qualify for the state playoffs.
Back in simpler times, the regular season and the applicable conference tournaments were your eliminators that separated the adults from the children, so to speak.
Another topic that puts things in perspective is that the odds of those teams with the horrible records who make those long drives are going to face the grim reality of defeat. Yes, some will spring off a surprise upset, but let’s face it, they’re few and far between.
My upset criterion in basketball is simple: In 1A through 7A, teams seeded in the 20’s (20-24) win their first round game. In 8A, teams seeded in double digits (10-12) also were victorious in their first round matchups. While there were some surprises in the first round, they were few and far between.
In women’s basketball, there were only 7 upsets out of 120 opportunities, for a rate of 5.9%. There was an “upset” registered by North Lincoln (3-21) in the 5A West women’s first round.While technically an upset by criteria, it truly wasn’t an upset despite their record being affected by 17 forfeit losses due to games played with an ineligible player. Ironically, North Lincolnwas given entry into the state playoffs and would eventually win the 5A state championship over Southeast Alamance.
In Men’s Basketball, the numbers were slightly better. Again, there were some impressive results, but the results showed a slightly higher rate of 8 upsets out of 120 opportunities – a6.7% rate.
With the lack of upsets, it just amplifies the number of first round blowouts, especially at the expense of sub-.500 teams. My designation of a blowout in basketball as winning by 20+ points.
Overall, games were competitive. In women’s basketball, there were 53 blowouts in 120 playoff games at a frequency of 44.9%. If you broke it down per classification, it looks like this:
WOMEN’S BASKETBALL – 1st Round Blowouts by Classification – Frequency Percentage:
1A: 8 in 14 overall games – 57.1%
2A: 8 in 16 overall games – 50.0%
3A: 9 in 16 overall games – 56.3 %
4A: 5 in 16 overall games – 43.8%
5A: 10 in 16 overall games – 56.2%
6A: 4 in 16 overall games – 25.0%
7A: 6 in 16 overall games – 37.5%
8A: 3 in 8 overall games – 38.0%
WOMEN’S BASKTBALL – 1st Round blowouts lost by sub-.500 teams – Frequency % (Responsibility %) by Class:
1A: 8 in 14 games – 57.1% (100%)
2A: 8 in 16 games – 50.0% (100%)
3A: 9 in 16 games – 56.3% (100%)
4A: 5 in 12 games – 41.7% (100%)
5A: 9 in 16* games – 56.3% (90.0%)
6A: 4 in 16 games – 25.0% (100%)
7A: 4 in 13 games – 30.8% (66.7%)
8A: 1 in 4 games – 25.0% (66.7%)
(The number of games is the number of games specifically featuring sub-.500 teams)
* – Denotes North Lincoln who had 17 games forfeited due to an ineligible player.
Statewide, a sub-.500 team was blown out 45 times in 118 games, a 38.1% frequency rate and was 92.4% responsible for all first-round blowouts.
In men’s basketball, games were more competitive as there were only 36 blowouts in 120 games, at a frequency rate of 30%.
MEN’S BASKETBALL – 1st Round Blowouts by Classification – Frequency Percentage:
1A: 8 in 16 games – 50.0%
2A: 4 in 16 games – 25.0%
3A: 4 in 16 games – 25.0 %
4A: 5 in 16 games – 31.3%
5A: 4 in 16 games – 25.0%
6A: 8 in 16 games – 50.0%
7A: 2 in 16 games – 12.5%
8A: 1 in 8 games – 12.5%
MEN’S BASKETBALL – First Round Blowouts lost by sub-.500 teams – Frequency / (Responsibility %) by Class:
1A: 8 in 16 games - 50.0% (100%)
2A: 2 in 16 games - 12.5% (50.0%)
3A: 4 in 13 games – 30.8% (100%)
4A: 5 in 14 games – 35.7% (100%)
5A: 4 in 12 games – 33.3% (100%)
6A: 8 in 16 games – 50.0% (100%)
7A: 1 in 14 games – 7.1% (50.0%)
8A: 1 in 4 games – 25.0% (100%)
(The number of games is the number of games featuring sub-.500 teams)
Statewide, 33 of the 36 men’s basketball teams blown out were by a sub-.500 team and were responsible for 91.6% of the first round blowouts.
From a cost perspective, imagine you’re a school board member of a small county that has a singular high school with a limited budget. Your men’s basketball team just went 2-20 in the regular season and the women’s team fared a little better at 4-18. The district is having a hard time in making ends meet and decisions need to be made to help keep fuel in the regular school buses. Are the upcoming playoff games your teams are facing against much better opponents that’s anywhere from 2.5 to 4 hours away and up to 250 miles per trip – worth it?What’s more important? The daily commute of the district’s students to school or a couple of extended away athletic events that could impact the fuel budget of the district?
Keep in mind these same student-athletes have class the next day. They need rest to be at their best in the classroom. It’s quite conceivable they will be performing homework, studying, and later sleeping on the extra-long trip home. These are hard choices to make especially when someone other than parents are making them. As these decisions are being contemplated by numerous small counties statewide, I’m sure these districts are receiving some fuel subsidies to help stretch things.
These tough choices truly go beyond dollars and cents.
Thank God I’m not an athletic director or a politician. But after looking at the data that I compiled, I’m don’t know how the NCHSAA justifies any of this. But they often can, especially if they’re receiving a cut in all of this. How much is unknown, especially after everything has been switched around.
As I’ve often said in previous editions, these engorged playoffs are the result of extra games played. When extra games are played, extra revenue is accrued. While it might not be in the tens to hundreds of thousands of dollars, it does make some dollars.
In the words of comedian Steve Harvey, “A Little Money is Better than No Money”.
When state senator Tom McInnis professed to “sticking his big nose underneath the tent of the NCHSAA” and successfully stopped the Association’s ability to raise money for its’endowment fund, the NCHSAA had to get creative on how it brings in money. They had to rely on groups like the Greater Raleigh Sports Alliance, the Durham Sports Commission, and various corporate sponsorships to help pay for the state championships and to create revenue streams just to keep the NCHSAA afloat.
Even if the first round is eliminated, the NCHSAA could still rack in the dollars by having better first-round matchups which could invite more people to the arenas & stadiums and bring in a big gate. Knowing the NCHSAA and their abilities to increase ticket prices per round of the state playoffs, would they increase ticket prices during the regular season? More than likely.
But at least the quality of the playoff games would be far better than watching blowout after blowout in the first round.
Because of a need to generate revenue and a lack of common sense, it’s causing the Association to keep bad teams on the road in the playoffs for no reason, especially when these inferior teams didn’t earn their place. The numbers don’t lie. These pudgy playoffs just don’t fit and need adjustments.
You can expect more of the same come spring sports. Part III will come when the Baseball and Softball playoffs are released.
