by Jon Franklin
Lately, it seems I’ve been rehashing old editions of The Franklin Mint. But strangely, they’ve made a comeback
as their content has become relevant to today’s topics. As we’re coming to a close on the 2025 fall sports
season, it has once brought up an issue that’s been stuck in my craw for years:
Why in the name of common sense are undeserving teams making the state playoffs? Why are many of these
teams with mediocre to utterly atrocious records continually making the state playoffs?
Ever since the North Carolina High School Athletic Association expanded the state playoffs in the old four
classification system from 32 to 64 teams in the 2014 season, the NCHSAA has given bad teams with horrible
records berths to the state playoffs that, frankly, did not deserve to be there. You would have thought when the
NCHSAA reformed the classes from four to eight that there would have been some commonsense reform to
the playoff system.
And we would have been wrong.
When a team finishes a season at 0–10 in football, 2–20 in volleyball, 1–12–1 in soccer, or whatever completely
upside–down record it is or was in any sport – your team deserves a first–class ticket to an early start to the
next sports season’s first practices. FULL STOP.
I have no earthly idea on why the NCHSAA continually rewards mediocrity and futility. For good teams, it is a
waste of time and energy in wasting time in preparation to beat a bad team into oblivion. For the mediocre /
inferior schools and their respective school systems, it is a literal waste of time and actual energy on a trip that
that is proven that the odds are stacked against them, to eventually lose and lose by a lopsided margin.
I took the time to do some research on what it looks like when the NCHSAA allows bad teams to enter the
state playoffs all for it to be a waste of everyone’s time. For the sake of time, I only researched one men’s team
(football) and one women’s team (volleyball). I researched the one–way commutes of the away teams, the one–
way mileage of the commutes, the number of actual upsets versus the lack thereof, and the number of
blowouts that come in the first–round games – primarily from teams with sub–.500 records.
Let’s begin with the commutes. First, to go across the Tar Heel State is a long one to begin with. To go across
North Carolina from the most westernmost point in Cherokee County on U.S. 74 west of Murphy to the most
easternmost point at the Dare County town of Buxton is 616 miles. It would take you ten hours just to make the
drive.
Imagine riding that monstrosity of a distance on your standard high school activity bus. It hurts my back and
butt just thinking about it.
These were five longest one–way commutes in the first round in Football in reverse order:
as their content has become relevant to today’s topics. As we’re coming to a close on the 2025 fall sports
season, it has once brought up an issue that’s been stuck in my craw for years:
Why in the name of common sense are undeserving teams making the state playoffs? Why are many of these
teams with mediocre to utterly atrocious records continually making the state playoffs?
Ever since the North Carolina High School Athletic Association expanded the state playoffs in the old four
classification system from 32 to 64 teams in the 2014 season, the NCHSAA has given bad teams with horrible
records berths to the state playoffs that, frankly, did not deserve to be there. You would have thought when the
NCHSAA reformed the classes from four to eight that there would have been some commonsense reform to
the playoff system.
And we would have been wrong.
When a team finishes a season at 0–10 in football, 2–20 in volleyball, 1–12–1 in soccer, or whatever completely
upside–down record it is or was in any sport – your team deserves a first–class ticket to an early start to the
next sports season’s first practices. FULL STOP.
I have no earthly idea on why the NCHSAA continually rewards mediocrity and futility. For good teams, it is a
waste of time and energy in wasting time in preparation to beat a bad team into oblivion. For the mediocre /
inferior schools and their respective school systems, it is a literal waste of time and actual energy on a trip that
that is proven that the odds are stacked against them, to eventually lose and lose by a lopsided margin.
I took the time to do some research on what it looks like when the NCHSAA allows bad teams to enter the
state playoffs all for it to be a waste of everyone’s time. For the sake of time, I only researched one men’s team
(football) and one women’s team (volleyball). I researched the one–way commutes of the away teams, the one–
way mileage of the commutes, the number of actual upsets versus the lack thereof, and the number of
blowouts that come in the first–round games – primarily from teams with sub–.500 records.
Let’s begin with the commutes. First, to go across the Tar Heel State is a long one to begin with. To go across
North Carolina from the most westernmost point in Cherokee County on U.S. 74 west of Murphy to the most
easternmost point at the Dare County town of Buxton is 616 miles. It would take you ten hours just to make the
drive.
Imagine riding that monstrosity of a distance on your standard high school activity bus. It hurts my back and
butt just thinking about it.
These were five longest one–way commutes in the first round in Football in reverse order:
In fifth place: In the 5A West bracket, 22nd–seed Smoky Mountain (Jackson Co.) traveled to 11th–seed Forest
Hills (Union Co.) at a time of 3hr, 30 min; a distance of 214 miles. Forest Hills defeated Smoky Mountain, 40–
28.
In fourth place: In the 5A East bracket, 18th–seed Dixon (Onslow Co.) traveled 15th–seed Rockingham County
at a time of 3hr, 40 min; a distance of 229 miles. Dixon won a 58–50 shootout over Rockingham County.
In 3rd place: In the 2A West bracket, 17th–seeded Cherokee (Swain Co.) traveled to 16th–seed Albemarle
(Stanly Co.) at a time of 4hr, 05 min; a distance of 213 miles. Albemarle defeated Cherokee, 21–15.
In 2nd place: In the 1A West bracket, 9th–seed Andrews (Cherokee Co.) traveled to 8th–seed College Prep &
Leadership Academy (Guilford Co.) at a time of 4hr, 10 min; at a distance of 260 miles. Andrews pulled off the
win over CPLA by a 42–34 decision.
But taking home the gold: In the 2A East bracket, 17th–seed West Columbus (Columbus Co.) traveled to 16th–
seed Camden County at a distance of 4hr, 15 min; at a distance of 270 miles. Camden County squeaked out a
33–30 win over West Columbus.
But in Volleyball, the times and distances went even further.
In fifth place: In the 2A West bracket, 21st–seed Albemarle (Stanly Co.) traveled to Swain County at a time of
3hr, 59min; at a distance of 225 miles. Swain County won in a 3–0 sweep, but the in–game scores were
unavailable.
In fourth place: Also in the 2A West bracket, 18th–seed Elkin (Surry Co.) journeyed to 15th–seed Murphy
(Cherokee Co.) at a time of four hours, a distance of 243 miles. Murphy eked out a 3–2 decision that saw the
match go back and forth between the Bulldogs and the Buckin’ Elks.
In 3rd place: In the 1A West bracket, 23rd–seed Blue Ridge Early College (Jackson Co.) traveled to 10th–seed
River Mill Academy (Alamance Co.) at a time of 4hr, 14 min; a distance of 263 miles. River Mill won a decisive
3–0 match with the in–game scores unreported.
In 2nd place: In the 4A East bracket, 21st–seed T.W. Andrews (Guilford Co.) traveled to 12th–seed First Flight
(Dare Co. – the second easternmost high school in North Carolina behind Cape Hatteras High School) at a
time 4hr, 40 min; a distance of 292 miles. First Flight won in a modest sweep that saw the average margin of
victory around 7.5 points per game.
But the overall grand champion of my research was in the 1A West bracket: 17th–seed North Stokes (Stokes
Co.) traveled to 16th–seed Hiawassee Dam (Cherokee Co. – the westernmost high school in North Carolina) at
a staggering one–way time of 5hr, 11 min; a distance of 303 miles. Hiawassee Dam won a surprisingly close
three–game sweep that saw the average final margins within three points of each other.
These were the extremes, but they don’t reflect the overall times. In fact, there were some teams that had
relatively short distances. When Orange faced off against Southeast Alamance in the first round of the 5A East
football playoffs, the commute on U.S. 70 was only 15 miles (21 mins), which isn’t so bad. For some of the
Fayetteville–area schools who faced off against each other, it was even shorter at the tune of under ten
minutes.
But when you average out the rest of the state with each other, it paints a vastly different picture:
Hills (Union Co.) at a time of 3hr, 30 min; a distance of 214 miles. Forest Hills defeated Smoky Mountain, 40–
28.
In fourth place: In the 5A East bracket, 18th–seed Dixon (Onslow Co.) traveled 15th–seed Rockingham County
at a time of 3hr, 40 min; a distance of 229 miles. Dixon won a 58–50 shootout over Rockingham County.
In 3rd place: In the 2A West bracket, 17th–seeded Cherokee (Swain Co.) traveled to 16th–seed Albemarle
(Stanly Co.) at a time of 4hr, 05 min; a distance of 213 miles. Albemarle defeated Cherokee, 21–15.
In 2nd place: In the 1A West bracket, 9th–seed Andrews (Cherokee Co.) traveled to 8th–seed College Prep &
Leadership Academy (Guilford Co.) at a time of 4hr, 10 min; at a distance of 260 miles. Andrews pulled off the
win over CPLA by a 42–34 decision.
But taking home the gold: In the 2A East bracket, 17th–seed West Columbus (Columbus Co.) traveled to 16th–
seed Camden County at a distance of 4hr, 15 min; at a distance of 270 miles. Camden County squeaked out a
33–30 win over West Columbus.
But in Volleyball, the times and distances went even further.
In fifth place: In the 2A West bracket, 21st–seed Albemarle (Stanly Co.) traveled to Swain County at a time of
3hr, 59min; at a distance of 225 miles. Swain County won in a 3–0 sweep, but the in–game scores were
unavailable.
In fourth place: Also in the 2A West bracket, 18th–seed Elkin (Surry Co.) journeyed to 15th–seed Murphy
(Cherokee Co.) at a time of four hours, a distance of 243 miles. Murphy eked out a 3–2 decision that saw the
match go back and forth between the Bulldogs and the Buckin’ Elks.
In 3rd place: In the 1A West bracket, 23rd–seed Blue Ridge Early College (Jackson Co.) traveled to 10th–seed
River Mill Academy (Alamance Co.) at a time of 4hr, 14 min; a distance of 263 miles. River Mill won a decisive
3–0 match with the in–game scores unreported.
In 2nd place: In the 4A East bracket, 21st–seed T.W. Andrews (Guilford Co.) traveled to 12th–seed First Flight
(Dare Co. – the second easternmost high school in North Carolina behind Cape Hatteras High School) at a
time 4hr, 40 min; a distance of 292 miles. First Flight won in a modest sweep that saw the average margin of
victory around 7.5 points per game.
But the overall grand champion of my research was in the 1A West bracket: 17th–seed North Stokes (Stokes
Co.) traveled to 16th–seed Hiawassee Dam (Cherokee Co. – the westernmost high school in North Carolina) at
a staggering one–way time of 5hr, 11 min; a distance of 303 miles. Hiawassee Dam won a surprisingly close
three–game sweep that saw the average final margins within three points of each other.
These were the extremes, but they don’t reflect the overall times. In fact, there were some teams that had
relatively short distances. When Orange faced off against Southeast Alamance in the first round of the 5A East
football playoffs, the commute on U.S. 70 was only 15 miles (21 mins), which isn’t so bad. For some of the
Fayetteville–area schools who faced off against each other, it was even shorter at the tune of under ten
minutes.
But when you average out the rest of the state with each other, it paints a vastly different picture:
FOOTBALL – Average First Round One–Way Commutes (Time & Distances) by Classification:
1A: 1hr, 56 min – 113.2 miles
2A: 2hr, 11 min – 130.3 miles
3A: 1hr, 52 min – 107.2 miles
4A: 1hr, 29 min – 80.3 miles
5A: 1hr, 49 min – 106.3 miles
6A: 1hr, 24 min – 83.4 miles
7A: 1hr, 33 min – 91.3 miles
8A: 51 min – 42.0 miles
Statewide Average: 1hr, 38 min – 94.3 miles
VOLLEYBALL – Average First Round One–Way Commutes (Time & Distances) by Classification:
1A: 1hr, 42 min – 97.5 miles
2A: 2hr, 02 min – 111.1 miles
3A: 1hr, 53 min – 106.1 miles
4A: 1hr, 41 min – 95.7 miles
5A: 1hr, 37 min – 88.1 miles
6A: 1hr, 32 min – 88.1 miles
7A: 1hr, 27 min – 81.3 miles
8A: 1hr, 11 min – 63.0 miles
Statewide Average: 1hr, 38 min – 91.4 miles
I’m hoping these school systems hired charter buses or local churches graciously loaned their buses (that were
former and now, retired, charter buses), as these extra–long drive times are just ridiculous.
Then again one school said, “forget it”. In the 5A East Volleyball playoffs, Durham School of the Arts forfeited
their first–round game against Dixon, preventing a 2hr, 32min (157 mi) drive to Onslow County. I can’t say I
blame them and could imagine that paying the forfeit fines might have been cheaper than paying for the fuel.
Some games were close, but there were a slew of blowouts and not too many upsets. Read on.
The biggest part of the playoffs is who to actually let in. As I’ve said in other editions of The Franklin Mint is that
when you put too many teams in a tournament, the quality of the tournament suffers.
When you have a group of 32 teams in 8A and roughly 60 teams in 1A–7A, the demarcation line is half of the
teams. When you let in more teams than that, it’s a fact that any additional teams beyond half is going to have
teams with mediocre to worse records. Many of these .500 or worse teams hosted first round games, received
byes, and hosted round matches if they received byes.
Even though Orange volleyball had a talented team with a very up and down season, they finished the season
at .500, and received a fortuitous #7 seed and bye in the 5A East playoffs. They were by far the anomaly as a
result of playing a buzzsaw of a schedule, playing against the best of the best. Despite the raw start, they
improved en route to a regional semifinal appearance.
I broke the numbers down to show what it looked of how many teams were at and above .500 in each
classification:
1A: 1hr, 56 min – 113.2 miles
2A: 2hr, 11 min – 130.3 miles
3A: 1hr, 52 min – 107.2 miles
4A: 1hr, 29 min – 80.3 miles
5A: 1hr, 49 min – 106.3 miles
6A: 1hr, 24 min – 83.4 miles
7A: 1hr, 33 min – 91.3 miles
8A: 51 min – 42.0 miles
Statewide Average: 1hr, 38 min – 94.3 miles
VOLLEYBALL – Average First Round One–Way Commutes (Time & Distances) by Classification:
1A: 1hr, 42 min – 97.5 miles
2A: 2hr, 02 min – 111.1 miles
3A: 1hr, 53 min – 106.1 miles
4A: 1hr, 41 min – 95.7 miles
5A: 1hr, 37 min – 88.1 miles
6A: 1hr, 32 min – 88.1 miles
7A: 1hr, 27 min – 81.3 miles
8A: 1hr, 11 min – 63.0 miles
Statewide Average: 1hr, 38 min – 91.4 miles
I’m hoping these school systems hired charter buses or local churches graciously loaned their buses (that were
former and now, retired, charter buses), as these extra–long drive times are just ridiculous.
Then again one school said, “forget it”. In the 5A East Volleyball playoffs, Durham School of the Arts forfeited
their first–round game against Dixon, preventing a 2hr, 32min (157 mi) drive to Onslow County. I can’t say I
blame them and could imagine that paying the forfeit fines might have been cheaper than paying for the fuel.
Some games were close, but there were a slew of blowouts and not too many upsets. Read on.
The biggest part of the playoffs is who to actually let in. As I’ve said in other editions of The Franklin Mint is that
when you put too many teams in a tournament, the quality of the tournament suffers.
When you have a group of 32 teams in 8A and roughly 60 teams in 1A–7A, the demarcation line is half of the
teams. When you let in more teams than that, it’s a fact that any additional teams beyond half is going to have
teams with mediocre to worse records. Many of these .500 or worse teams hosted first round games, received
byes, and hosted round matches if they received byes.
Even though Orange volleyball had a talented team with a very up and down season, they finished the season
at .500, and received a fortuitous #7 seed and bye in the 5A East playoffs. They were by far the anomaly as a
result of playing a buzzsaw of a schedule, playing against the best of the best. Despite the raw start, they
improved en route to a regional semifinal appearance.
I broke the numbers down to show what it looked of how many teams were at and above .500 in each
classification:
FOOTBALL
In 8A, 20 of 24 teams were above .500 – 2 were at .500.
In 7A, 27 of 48 teams were above .500 – 5 were at .500.
In 6A, 28 of 48 teams were above .500 – 6 were at .500.
In 5A, 28 of 48 teams were above .500 – 5 were at .500.
In 4A, 20 of 48 teams were above .500 – 12 were at .500.
In 3A, 25 of 48 teams were above .500 – 8 were at .500.
In 2A, 21 of 43 teams were above .500 – 5 were at .500.
In 1A, 6 of 22 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
VOLLEYBALL
In 8A, 16 of 24 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 7A, 33 of 48 teams were above .500 – 4 were at .500.
In 6A, 23 of 48 teams were above .500 – 2 were at .500.
In 5A, 23 of 48 teams were above .500 – 3 were at .500.
In 4A, 31 of 48 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 3A, 31 of 48 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 2A, 27 of 48 teams were above .500 – 3 were at .500.
In 1A: 17 of 48 teams were above .500 – 2 were at .500.
If the first round was eliminated, the NCHSAA could still field a fine tournament of teams with above average
records. In football, you could easily have the number of above average teams, added with a few .500 teams to
equal a full, yet balanced tournament.
For example, the 8A tournament could either hold firm with the 20 teams and have a tournament with those
teams or bring in the two .500 teams for a 22–team tournament. The 7A tournament could add the five .500
teams to equal a complete, 32–team tournament, 6A & 5A would hold firm at 28 teams, 4A would bring in 4
teams, and 3A would bring in three. In the case of 1A and 2A football playoffs, they could easily be merged as
was the case of the 1A/2A/3A lacrosse tournaments from the previous four classification system. Five of the six
.500 teams in 1A/2A could be added to complete the mix for a full 32–team tournament.
The Volleyball playoffs would have similarities but would have a tough time eliminating two above .500 teams
from playoff consideration when merging the 1A & 2A playoffs. It would be conceivable that volleyball has their
respective playoffs in each class, but only a number where the brackets are even on both sides. The 8A
tournament would have had to leave out the .500 team as its inclusion would have created an unequal
tournament balance.
No matter the sport and tournament, all .500 teams would be the lowest seeded teams in each tournament.
They would not host games, receive byes, or host second round matchups. Under this scenario, Orange would
have received the #12 seed, the lowest in the field and would have most likely caused an Orange – Cedar
Ridge second round matchup in the 5A East volleyball playoffs after the Panthers would have decisively pulled
off a first round upset.
The reason I’m emphasizing admitting only the teams with above average records is because of the added
emphasis on winning in the regular season. Given the current design of the state playoffs, the regular season
has now become irrelevant. It doesn’t matter how well you perform in the regular season when anywhere from
75% (8A) to 81.4% (1A–7A) of teams will actually qualify for the state playoffs. Back in the day, the regular
season and the applicable conference tournament were your eliminators that separated the adults from the
children, so to speak.
In 8A, 20 of 24 teams were above .500 – 2 were at .500.
In 7A, 27 of 48 teams were above .500 – 5 were at .500.
In 6A, 28 of 48 teams were above .500 – 6 were at .500.
In 5A, 28 of 48 teams were above .500 – 5 were at .500.
In 4A, 20 of 48 teams were above .500 – 12 were at .500.
In 3A, 25 of 48 teams were above .500 – 8 were at .500.
In 2A, 21 of 43 teams were above .500 – 5 were at .500.
In 1A, 6 of 22 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
VOLLEYBALL
In 8A, 16 of 24 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 7A, 33 of 48 teams were above .500 – 4 were at .500.
In 6A, 23 of 48 teams were above .500 – 2 were at .500.
In 5A, 23 of 48 teams were above .500 – 3 were at .500.
In 4A, 31 of 48 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 3A, 31 of 48 teams were above .500 – 1 was at .500.
In 2A, 27 of 48 teams were above .500 – 3 were at .500.
In 1A: 17 of 48 teams were above .500 – 2 were at .500.
If the first round was eliminated, the NCHSAA could still field a fine tournament of teams with above average
records. In football, you could easily have the number of above average teams, added with a few .500 teams to
equal a full, yet balanced tournament.
For example, the 8A tournament could either hold firm with the 20 teams and have a tournament with those
teams or bring in the two .500 teams for a 22–team tournament. The 7A tournament could add the five .500
teams to equal a complete, 32–team tournament, 6A & 5A would hold firm at 28 teams, 4A would bring in 4
teams, and 3A would bring in three. In the case of 1A and 2A football playoffs, they could easily be merged as
was the case of the 1A/2A/3A lacrosse tournaments from the previous four classification system. Five of the six
.500 teams in 1A/2A could be added to complete the mix for a full 32–team tournament.
The Volleyball playoffs would have similarities but would have a tough time eliminating two above .500 teams
from playoff consideration when merging the 1A & 2A playoffs. It would be conceivable that volleyball has their
respective playoffs in each class, but only a number where the brackets are even on both sides. The 8A
tournament would have had to leave out the .500 team as its inclusion would have created an unequal
tournament balance.
No matter the sport and tournament, all .500 teams would be the lowest seeded teams in each tournament.
They would not host games, receive byes, or host second round matchups. Under this scenario, Orange would
have received the #12 seed, the lowest in the field and would have most likely caused an Orange – Cedar
Ridge second round matchup in the 5A East volleyball playoffs after the Panthers would have decisively pulled
off a first round upset.
The reason I’m emphasizing admitting only the teams with above average records is because of the added
emphasis on winning in the regular season. Given the current design of the state playoffs, the regular season
has now become irrelevant. It doesn’t matter how well you perform in the regular season when anywhere from
75% (8A) to 81.4% (1A–7A) of teams will actually qualify for the state playoffs. Back in the day, the regular
season and the applicable conference tournament were your eliminators that separated the adults from the
children, so to speak.
Another topic that puts things in perspective is that often in the first round of the playoffs, the odds are those
making those long drives are going to face the grim reality of defeat. Yes, some will spring off a surprise upset.
But let’s face it, they’re few and far between.
In football, my criterion for an upset is simple: In 2A through 7A, teams seeded in the 20’s (20–24) win their
first–round game. In the 1A & 8A classes, teams seeded in double digits (10–12) winning first round
matchups. While there were some eye–opening upsets in the first round, they were rare.
The numbers? 9 upsets out of 66 opportunities, for a 13.7% upset rate. Then again, one must consider in the
1A class especially in schools in the far ends of North Carolina, football isn’t offered like other sports, and the
upset rate is deceptively higher. With the number of upsets becoming frail, it just amplifies the number of first
round blowouts, especially from sub–.500 teams. I classified a blowout in football as winning by 21+ points.
In football, there were a statewide total of 58 blowouts in 105 playoff games – a frequency rate of 55.2%. If you
broke it down per classification, it looks like this:
FOOTBALL – Overall First Round Blowouts by Classification – Frequency Percentage:
1A: 2 in 6 games – 33.0%
2A: 8 in 11 games – 72.8%
3A: 9 in 16 games – 56.3 %
4A: 7 in 16 games – 43.8%
5A: 9 in 16 games – 56.3%
6A: 11 in 16 games – 68.8%
7A: 9 in 16 games – 56.3%
8A: 3 in 8 games – 38.0%
FOOTBALL – First Round blowouts lost by sub–.500 teams – Frequency % / (Responsibility %) by
Classification:
1A: 2 in 6 games – 33.3% (100%)
2A: 8 in 11 games – 72.7% (100%)
3A: 9 in 14 games – 64.3% (100%)
4A: 4 in 15 games – 26.7% (57.1%)
5A: 6 in 14 games – 42.9% (66.7%)
6A: 10 in 13 games – 76.9% (90.9%)
7A: 5 in 10 games – 50.0 % (55.5%)
8A: 1 in 2 games – 50.0% (33.3 %)
(The number of games is the number of games featuring sub–.500 teams)
Statewide, a sub–.500 team was blown out 45 times in 85 games, a 53.0% frequency rate and was 77.6%
responsible for all first–round blowouts.
In Volleyball, the numbers are not as bad, but my criterion is a little higher. My criterion for a blowout is a three–
game sweep with the average margin of victory being 10+ points per game. But then again, 14 schools did not
report their in–game scores into MaxPreps, so the data is incomplete. Despite more teams in 1A completing a
48–team bracket, it didn’t create any more upsets than usual. There also were a couple of astonishing results,
but it resulted at a fewer rate of 7 upsets out of 76 opportunities – an upset rate of 9.2%.
making those long drives are going to face the grim reality of defeat. Yes, some will spring off a surprise upset.
But let’s face it, they’re few and far between.
In football, my criterion for an upset is simple: In 2A through 7A, teams seeded in the 20’s (20–24) win their
first–round game. In the 1A & 8A classes, teams seeded in double digits (10–12) winning first round
matchups. While there were some eye–opening upsets in the first round, they were rare.
The numbers? 9 upsets out of 66 opportunities, for a 13.7% upset rate. Then again, one must consider in the
1A class especially in schools in the far ends of North Carolina, football isn’t offered like other sports, and the
upset rate is deceptively higher. With the number of upsets becoming frail, it just amplifies the number of first
round blowouts, especially from sub–.500 teams. I classified a blowout in football as winning by 21+ points.
In football, there were a statewide total of 58 blowouts in 105 playoff games – a frequency rate of 55.2%. If you
broke it down per classification, it looks like this:
FOOTBALL – Overall First Round Blowouts by Classification – Frequency Percentage:
1A: 2 in 6 games – 33.0%
2A: 8 in 11 games – 72.8%
3A: 9 in 16 games – 56.3 %
4A: 7 in 16 games – 43.8%
5A: 9 in 16 games – 56.3%
6A: 11 in 16 games – 68.8%
7A: 9 in 16 games – 56.3%
8A: 3 in 8 games – 38.0%
FOOTBALL – First Round blowouts lost by sub–.500 teams – Frequency % / (Responsibility %) by
Classification:
1A: 2 in 6 games – 33.3% (100%)
2A: 8 in 11 games – 72.7% (100%)
3A: 9 in 14 games – 64.3% (100%)
4A: 4 in 15 games – 26.7% (57.1%)
5A: 6 in 14 games – 42.9% (66.7%)
6A: 10 in 13 games – 76.9% (90.9%)
7A: 5 in 10 games – 50.0 % (55.5%)
8A: 1 in 2 games – 50.0% (33.3 %)
(The number of games is the number of games featuring sub–.500 teams)
Statewide, a sub–.500 team was blown out 45 times in 85 games, a 53.0% frequency rate and was 77.6%
responsible for all first–round blowouts.
In Volleyball, the numbers are not as bad, but my criterion is a little higher. My criterion for a blowout is a three–
game sweep with the average margin of victory being 10+ points per game. But then again, 14 schools did not
report their in–game scores into MaxPreps, so the data is incomplete. Despite more teams in 1A completing a
48–team bracket, it didn’t create any more upsets than usual. There also were a couple of astonishing results,
but it resulted at a fewer rate of 7 upsets out of 76 opportunities – an upset rate of 9.2%.
VOLLEYBALL – Overall First Round Blowouts per Classification
1A*: 8 in 16 games – 50.0%
2A*: 6 in 16 games – 37.5%
3A**: 4 in 16 games – 25.0 %
4A**: 4 in 16 games – 25.0%
5A***: 6 in 16 games – 37.5%
6A***: 4 in 16 games – 25.0%
7A**: 8 in 16 games – 56.3%
8A: No Occurrences
* – Number of matches in which the in–game scores were not reported
Statewide, there were 40 blowouts in 112 games, at a frequency rate of 35.7%. If all data were present and
missing games were all blowouts, the total blowouts would be as high as 54 blowouts in 112 games, at a
frequency rate of 48.2%.
VOLLEYBALL – First Round Blowouts lost by sub–.500 teams – Frequency % / (Responsibility %) by
Classification:
1A: 8 in 16 games – 50.0% (100%)
2A: 6 in 16 games – 37.5% (100%)
3A: 4 in 14 games – 28.6% (100%)
4A: 4 in 13 games – 30.8% (100%)
5A: 6 in 16 games – 37.5% (100%)
6A: 3 in 16 games – 18.8% (75.0%)
7A: 7 in 10 games – 70.0% (87.5%)
8A: No Occurrences
(The number of games is the number of games featuring sub–.500 teams)
38 of the 40 volleyball teams blown out were Sub–.500 teams and were responsible for 95% of the 1st Round
blowouts. If all data were present and all games were blowouts by sub–.500 teams, the number would be at 52
of 54 teams, responsible for 96.3% of the 1st Round blowouts.
From a cost perspective, imagine you’re a school board member of a small county that has a singular high
school with a limited budget. Your school just went 1–9 in the regular season in football and 2–20 in volleyball –
and you’re struggling to make the district’s ends meet in part by helping keep fuel in the regular school buses.
Are the upcoming playoff games your teams are facing against much better opponents that’s anywhere from
2.5 to 4 hours away and up to 250 miles per trip – worth it? What’s more important? The daily commutes of the
district’s students to school, or a couple of extended away athletic events that could impact the fuel budget of
the district?
This is a hard decision to make especially when you’re making the decision of a child that isn’t yours. But this
decision is being contemplated by numerous counties statewide. While I’m sure the counties are receiving
some form of fuel subsidy to help stretch things, it truly goes beyond dollars and cents.
Thank God I’m not an athletic director or a politician. But after looking at the data that I compiled, I’m not sure
that the NCHSAA can justify any of this. But they often can, especially if they’re receiving a cut in all of this.
How much is unknown, especially after everything has been switched around.
1A*: 8 in 16 games – 50.0%
2A*: 6 in 16 games – 37.5%
3A**: 4 in 16 games – 25.0 %
4A**: 4 in 16 games – 25.0%
5A***: 6 in 16 games – 37.5%
6A***: 4 in 16 games – 25.0%
7A**: 8 in 16 games – 56.3%
8A: No Occurrences
* – Number of matches in which the in–game scores were not reported
Statewide, there were 40 blowouts in 112 games, at a frequency rate of 35.7%. If all data were present and
missing games were all blowouts, the total blowouts would be as high as 54 blowouts in 112 games, at a
frequency rate of 48.2%.
VOLLEYBALL – First Round Blowouts lost by sub–.500 teams – Frequency % / (Responsibility %) by
Classification:
1A: 8 in 16 games – 50.0% (100%)
2A: 6 in 16 games – 37.5% (100%)
3A: 4 in 14 games – 28.6% (100%)
4A: 4 in 13 games – 30.8% (100%)
5A: 6 in 16 games – 37.5% (100%)
6A: 3 in 16 games – 18.8% (75.0%)
7A: 7 in 10 games – 70.0% (87.5%)
8A: No Occurrences
(The number of games is the number of games featuring sub–.500 teams)
38 of the 40 volleyball teams blown out were Sub–.500 teams and were responsible for 95% of the 1st Round
blowouts. If all data were present and all games were blowouts by sub–.500 teams, the number would be at 52
of 54 teams, responsible for 96.3% of the 1st Round blowouts.
From a cost perspective, imagine you’re a school board member of a small county that has a singular high
school with a limited budget. Your school just went 1–9 in the regular season in football and 2–20 in volleyball –
and you’re struggling to make the district’s ends meet in part by helping keep fuel in the regular school buses.
Are the upcoming playoff games your teams are facing against much better opponents that’s anywhere from
2.5 to 4 hours away and up to 250 miles per trip – worth it? What’s more important? The daily commutes of the
district’s students to school, or a couple of extended away athletic events that could impact the fuel budget of
the district?
This is a hard decision to make especially when you’re making the decision of a child that isn’t yours. But this
decision is being contemplated by numerous counties statewide. While I’m sure the counties are receiving
some form of fuel subsidy to help stretch things, it truly goes beyond dollars and cents.
Thank God I’m not an athletic director or a politician. But after looking at the data that I compiled, I’m not sure
that the NCHSAA can justify any of this. But they often can, especially if they’re receiving a cut in all of this.
How much is unknown, especially after everything has been switched around.
As I’ve often said in previous editions, these engorged playoffs are the result of extra games played. When
extra games are played, extra revenue is accrued. While it might not be in the tens to hundreds of thousands
of dollars, it does generate some dollars.
In the words of comedian Steve Harvey, “A Little Money is Better than No Money.”
Ever since state senator Tom McInnis stuck his big nose underneath the tent of the NCHSAA and stopped the
Association’s ability to bring in money for the Endowment Fund, the NCHSAA has had to get creative on how it
generates revenue. They have had to rely on corporate sponsorships from organizations like the Greater
Raleigh Sports Alliance, the Durham Sports Commission, and other individual sponsors to help pay for the
state championships and to create revenue streams to keep the NCHSAA afloat.
The NCHSAA could eliminate the first round and still rack in the dollars by having better first–round matchups.
This could invite more people to the games and bring in big gates. Knowing the NCHSAA and their propensity
to increase ticket prices per round of the state playoffs, would they increase ticket prices during the regular
season? More than likely. But at least the quality of the playoff games would be far better than watching
blowout after blowout in the first round.
Because of a need to generate revenue and a lack of common sense, it’s causing the Association to keep bad
teams on the road in the playoffs for no reason, especially when they didn’t earn their place. The numbers
don’t lie. These pudgy playoffs just don’t fit and need adjustments. You can expect more of the same come
basketball season and into the spring sports.
extra games are played, extra revenue is accrued. While it might not be in the tens to hundreds of thousands
of dollars, it does generate some dollars.
In the words of comedian Steve Harvey, “A Little Money is Better than No Money.”
Ever since state senator Tom McInnis stuck his big nose underneath the tent of the NCHSAA and stopped the
Association’s ability to bring in money for the Endowment Fund, the NCHSAA has had to get creative on how it
generates revenue. They have had to rely on corporate sponsorships from organizations like the Greater
Raleigh Sports Alliance, the Durham Sports Commission, and other individual sponsors to help pay for the
state championships and to create revenue streams to keep the NCHSAA afloat.
The NCHSAA could eliminate the first round and still rack in the dollars by having better first–round matchups.
This could invite more people to the games and bring in big gates. Knowing the NCHSAA and their propensity
to increase ticket prices per round of the state playoffs, would they increase ticket prices during the regular
season? More than likely. But at least the quality of the playoff games would be far better than watching
blowout after blowout in the first round.
Because of a need to generate revenue and a lack of common sense, it’s causing the Association to keep bad
teams on the road in the playoffs for no reason, especially when they didn’t earn their place. The numbers
don’t lie. These pudgy playoffs just don’t fit and need adjustments. You can expect more of the same come
basketball season and into the spring sports.
